Vancouver, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

612
FXUS66 KPQR 130057
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
457 PM PST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread snow, freezing rain/sleet, and rain are
expected late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Also, very
cold overnight temperatures and breezy easterly winds are
expected. This will result in very hazardous conditions across
the forecast area through the end of this week. A pattern change
with slightly warmer temperatures and rain/snow is possible
starting Saturday and that trend looks to continue into the
middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday Night...The dry and cold
conditions will persist through the majority of the overnight
hours. However, the significant pattern change which we have
been talking about is on our doorstep. So, lets talk about the
synoptic set up before we get down into the details. Easterly
flow will continue to bring cold arctic air from over the
Cascades into the region. These easterly winds will continue to
increase through Thursday night, with peak gusts up to 45 mph
in the east Portland metro area, and up to 65 mph at exposed
areas in the Columbia River Gorge. Thus have retained the High
Wind Advisory for the eastern Portland metro area near the
Gorge. Also, temperatures remain quite cold, with another Cold
Weather Advisory for the entire area. So, expect wind chill
("feels like) temperatures as low as 10 to 25 degrees
fahrenheit.For the Extreme Cold Warning within the Columbia
River Gorge and Upper Hood River Valley, expect dangerously cold
wind chills ("feels like") as low as zero degrees fahrenheit.

There has been a significant shift in the models when compared
to the past 24 hours, with the primary difference being where
the bulk of the precipitation looks to be focused as well as the
predominant precipitation type. The overall track of the low
coming into the region looks good with land fall still expected
around Florence, OR. However, it should be noted that depending
on where this system comes on shore, will dictate they
precipitation types experienced across our CWA. With all that
said lets get into some of the details. HREF guidance is
showing that rather than have a brief time period of snow, the
Southern and Central Willamette Valley along with the Central
Oregon Coast Range Lowlands, and Central Oregon Coast Range will
start out as freezing rain/sleet. This pattern of mostly
freezing rain/sleet will also now apply to areas northward.
However, areas further north will likely have a brief period of
snow before transitioning over to freezing rain/sleet. It is
highly recommended that if you are after the timing of the
precipitation to read the timing section below. Also, have
included a hazard breakdown below the timing with given storm-
total amounts for snow and ice that will impact various zones
across our CWA. /42

Precipitation Timing:

High Confidence: Periods of freezing rain and/or snow will
impact the vast majority of northwest Oregon and southwest
Washington (aside from locations to the south of Newport on the
coast) beginning Wednesday night 2/12 or Thursday morning 2/13,
depending on location. This will result in significant travel
impacts during the rush hour commute. Expect precipitation to
begin as freezing rain for the central Oregon Coast Range and
southern Willamette Valley around 2-3 AM Thu, 2/13. Precipitation
will likely begin as snow in the central Willamette Valley and
north Oregon Coast Range for a very brief period of time around
5 AM Thu, 2/13 before quickly switching over to freezing rain.
Precipitation will likely begin as snow for the northern
Willamette Valley and Portland/Vancouver metro around 9-10 AM
Thu, 2/13 before switching over to freezing rain in the early
afternoon, potentially mixing in with sleet at times. This has
us concerned that folks living in the Portland/Vancouver metro
will wake up before 9 AM, notice it is still dry out and head to
work, then have a very difficult time trying to commute back
home in the evening as there will likely be some snow and ice on
roads, resulting in hazardous travel conditions. Precipitation
looks to start closer to 11am Thu, 2/13 for the Willapa Hills,
Lower Columbia and Cowlitz Valleys, mixing in with freezing rain
or sleet at times Thursday evening after 5 PM. For the coast,
expecting mainly freezing rain in most spots with moderate
travel impacts, however surface temps may be a degree or two
above freezing in a few spots such as the Long Beach Peninsula,
Lincoln City, Depoe Bay, Waldport, Seal Rock, Yachats and
Florence. This would result in little to no travel impacts in
these locations, but the forecast in these particular locations
is especially tricky as forecast temperatures need to be spot
on, to the exact degree, to determine if precip will fall as
cold rain or as freezing rain with ice accumulations. Higher
confidence for below freezing temps and freezing rain from
Tillamook to Astoria where temps look to be slightly colder.
(-TK)

Hazards and Storm-total amounts:

Ice Storm Warning:

For the Southern Willamette Valley, to include areas near
Eugene, Cottage Grove and Monroe. Significant icing expected.
Total snow accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations up
to three tenths of an inch.

For the Central Willamette Valley, to include areas near Salem,
Albany, Lincoln and Silverton. Significant icing expected.
Total snow accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations up
to three tenths of an inch.

For the Central Oregon Coast Range Lowlands, and Central Oregon
Coast Range. Significant icing expected. Total snow accumulations
up to one inch and ice accumulations up to three tenths of an
inch.

Winter Storm Warning:

For the North Oregon Coast Range, heavy mixed precipitation
expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches
and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch.

For the North Oregon Coast Range Lowlands, heavy mixed
precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to
one inch and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch.

For the Northern Willamette Valley, to include Portland Metro
Lowlands, Greater Vancouver Metro, and Portland West Hills and
Chehalem Mountain. Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total
snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice
accumulations between one tenth and two tenths of an inch. Winds
gusting as high as 45 mph. Also, the Outer Southeast Portland
Metro should expect heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total
snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations
between one tenth and two tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as
high as 40 mph.

Winter Weather Advisory:

For the South Washington and North and Central Oregon Coast,to
include areas from Florence, OR through the Long Beach Peninsula
in Washington. Expect mixed precipitation. Total snow
accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around one
tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

For the Western and Central Columbia River Gorge and Hood River
County, to include Hood River, Odell, Cascade Locks, Stevenson
and Carson. Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations around two tenths
of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

For the Cascades and Cascade Foothills, mixed precipitation
expected. Total snow accumulations 6 to 12 inches and ice
accumulations around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high
as 45 mph.

For the Willapa Hills and Adjacent River Valleys of Pacific and
Wahkiakum Counties, Lower Columbia River and Cowlitz River
Valleys, and South Washington Cascade Foothills. Mixed
precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up to one inch
and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch. /42


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...Another northeast
Pacific system will bring another round of widespread
precipitation to the Pacific NW on Saturday. While at present,
model guidance indicates this to primarily be rain, the
possibility does exist for the east winds to persist through
the Gorge, allowing for possible winter precipitation for the
Portland/Vancouver Metro area as well as the majority of
northern Willamette Valley. As the cold, easterly winds slacken,
there will be a slow transition within the Columbia River Gorge
from snow (Saturday) to freezing rain/sleet (Sunday) and
finally rain (Monday). By the start of next week warmer
temperatures are expected to dominate the CWA and will result in
rain for most locations as snow levels are expected to lift
towards 4000 ft. /42

&&

.AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft this evening turns southerly by
Thursday morning ahead of an approaching low pressure system. This
system will bring a mix of wintry precipitation to the area,
beginning around 10-12z near KONP to KEUG, lifting north to the
Portland Metro area by 16-17z Thu. Until then, expect VFR through
this evening and most likely overnight ahead of the initial
frontal band. Offshore winds are expected to strengthen overnight
with the strongest easterly winds expected near the Columbia River
Gorge, with gusts as high as 40-45 kt.

Overnight temperatures are expected to fall below freezing again.
Precipitation initially falls as snow with somewhat reduced VIS
from KSLE northward but transitions to freezing rain around
18-20z. Confidence is moderate in regards to exact timing and
precipitation type. CIGs are expected to lower to around 2500-3500
ft after 20z Thu.

PDX AND APPROACHES...High clouds increase tonight, with VFR
expected through 16z Thu. Light snow is likely to begin around 16z
Thu with reduced visibility possible and CIGs lowering to around
3500-4500 ft. After 20z, precipitation becomes more spotty and
transitions to a mix of sleet and freezing rain as temperatures
likely remain near or just below freezing through the day. East
winds with gusts to around 30 kt this evening are expected to
increase overnight into Thu morning. For approaches, gusts as
high as 50 kt are possible above 1500 ft AGL after 06Z Thursday.
/DH

&&

.MARINE...A low pressure system near 140W will move east toward
the central Oregon coast through Thursday night. Offshore winds
will strengthen tonight as the low approaches, ahead of an
associated front that lifts north across the coastal waters on
Thursday. Expect easterly winds to increase to 20-25 kt overnight
through Thursday morning, with the strongest winds expected
through the coastal gaps and near the Columbia River Bar where
gusts of 30-35 kt will be possible. Seas are expected to remain
around 5 to 7 ft as a westerly swell persists through Thursday
morning.

With the added easterly wind, temperatures will drop. Expecting
freezing conditions along moorages tonight through Thursday
night. With the added precipitation, cannot rule out freezing
rain, snow, or even freezing spray if the winds are high enough
from the east. Confidence is low as to whether any ice will form.

As the low approaches the central Oregon coast Thursday night,
winds will ease and shift more northerly. The low is expected to
push onshore by Friday morning with winds turning onshore. As
winds decrease, the westerly swell amplifies. Seas are expected to
build to around 10 to 12 ft by Friday morning before gradually
subsiding below 10 ft by Saturday morning. The next weather system
moves in over the weekend with building seas and around a 40%
chance of southerly gales late Saturday into Sunday. /DH


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon PST
     Thursday for ORZ101>108-113>118-123>128.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday
     for ORZ101>103.

     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday
     for ORZ104-106.

     Ice Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Friday
     for ORZ105-107-114>118.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday
     for ORZ108.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon PST
     Friday for ORZ109>112.

     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday
     for ORZ109>113.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for ORZ112.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to noon PST
     Thursday for ORZ119>122.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 10 PM PST Friday
     for ORZ119>128.

     Cold Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to noon PST Friday
     for ORZ119>122.

WA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon PST
     Thursday for WAZ201>204-208-211.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday
     for WAZ201.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday
     for WAZ202>204-208.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon PST
     Friday for WAZ205>207.

     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday
     for WAZ205>207.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for WAZ207.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to noon PST
     Thursday for WAZ209-210.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 10 PM PST Friday
     for WAZ209>211.

     Cold Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to noon PST Friday
     for WAZ209-210.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for PZZ210.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for PZZ251-252-271-
     272.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
     Friday for PZZ253-273.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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