Vancouver, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

468
FXUS66 KPQR 231150 AAB
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
349 AM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Rain showers with mountain snow showers
over the weekend into early next week. Trending towards drier
weather later next week with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday...Upper and surface low center
offshore of southwest B.C. this morning. But disturbances rotating
around the low will continue to bring showers to the forecast area
through early next week. Current wave of showers now moving inland
with heaviest rain extending from interior of southwest WA to the
central OR coast range. Once this passes through by midday should see
decrease in shower activity.  But then the next batch of showers
arrive late this afternoon to the coast. Most of the rainfall is
expected at the coast, but will still see light showers inland
through tonight.

Snow levels remain around 3000-3500 ft today, then dip down 2500-3000
ft tonight into Sunday. Expect around 2 to 5 inches of snow at the
Cascade passes through tonight. Showers continue off and on at times
through Monday as the upper low does a back flip of sorts and ends up
off the central OR coast Monday afternoon. The low weakens later
Monday into Tuesday as it shifts inland with showers decreasing.

The possibility for coastal thunderstorms continues through Sunday.
Conditions still support a very low chance (<5%) of some isolated
waterspouts over the waters. But this time around conditions are
less favorable than the recent waterspout activity.

Beyond Tuesday, WPC Cluster Analysis show good agreement with upper
level ridging moving into the northeast Pacific. This should result
in dry, mild and stable conditions Wednesday through Friday. However
while all clusters show some form of troughing off the CA coast, one
cluster has about 20% of the ensemble members with a weaker ridge,
potentially opening up the PacNW to some rain. /mh

&&

.AVIATION...Showers along with a general mixture of high-end
MVFR/low-end VFR expected through the TAF period. After 19Z
Saturday, expect improvement to predominately VFR thresholds but
with lingering showers as broad low pressure remains over the
Pacific. Expect southerly/southeasterly winds generally under 15
kt across the airspace. However, could see some gusts up to 20 kt
around the KONP starting around 00Z Sunday through 06Z Sunday.

PDX APPROACHES...Generally VFR, with periods of high-end MVFR
through 19Z Saturday. Expect showers and southerly winds under 10
kt throughout the TAF period. /42

&&

.MARINE...Today through the start of next week, the weather
pattern becomes relatively benign for this time of year with no
signs of significant winds or hazardous seas. The only exception
at this time is Saturday night/Sunday as a weak small-scale
surface low moves northward over the coastal waters. This will
is expected to bring a period of stronger winds and elevated seas
for a brief period of time. There is still some uncertainty
regarding how strong winds will get, but as of right now it
appears wind gusts up to 40 kt have a 35%-50% probability.
Therefore, have issued a Gale Watch for all waters starting late
tonight. Will continue to monitor this situation as there remains
many differences between the ensembles and deterministic
guidance. Given the short duration of these stronger winds, seas
are not expected to have enough time to build towards 10 to 14 ft,
with a peak likely Sunday afternoon. Beyond Sunday, benign
conditions are expected to return with winds and seas subsiding
below 20 kt and 10 ft respectfully. /42

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PST early this morning for
     PZZ210-251>253-271>273.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ210-
     251>253-271>273.

     Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for
PZZ210-
     251>253-271>273.
&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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